AGI: (gets close), Humans: ‘Who Gets to Own it?’
A 'frontier reasoning model' from just 1000 examples (s1). A $100B Musk bid for power. Gemini 2, Rand and warning from Amodei. Here’s 7 developments you may have missed but which I would argue help us understand how the next few years will play out. From labour vs capital to automating rival companies and countries, and from non-profit shenanigans to new mini-docs, there was just too much for me not to make a vid.
GiveWell:
AI Insiders ($9!):
s1 Paper:
Musk Bid:
Altman Reply:
Google vs OpenAI:
RAND Study:
Dev Meetup:
Altman $100 Trillion:
Karpathy Vid:
Amodei Warning:
Bengio Source:
Chapters:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – AGI Inches Closer
04:26 – ‘Super-Exponential’
05:58 – Musk Bid
07:34 – Luxury Goods and Land
09:05 – ‘Benefits All Humanity’
12:52 – ‘National Security’
14:21 – s1
20:33 – Final thoughts
Non-hype Newsletter:
Podcast:
Weird how AGI keeps getting different definitions. Almost like the rich are moving goalposts.
It’s literally not moving
It seems clear at this point AGI will be defined to be whatever keeps the money flowing.
@@BigSourcesthey’re making a new ‘only human passable’ test every three months.
@@BigSources Samuel postet a new one tho
Actual goalpost didn’t move, their goal has never been the benefit of others.
This is one of many ethical questions about the creation of AGI that is so fundamentally important, yet so shockingly misunderstood or ignored by the people driving progress.
I hate to say it, but the astounding lack of rigorous philosophical inquiry backing up AI development really does not bode well. At this point, I have started to mentally prepare myself for a future in which the alignment problem is not solved before AGI is created.
There will be serious consequences.
Agreed, but I never thought we would have answers before AGI was invented. I’m just sad that AI people mostly avoid even basic inquiry into them.
And it’s coming at the worse time in years. Defunding of the government will make the people weaker.
It will be fine. You don’t want to align AI, AI will align us instead. We really need that.
@@crafty1098 not having complete answers is one thing, but it seems we won’t even know where to look for them
There can be no AGI that is “aligned”, it goes against the definition of AGI.
This is why I’ve been saying that we need benchmarks to test on tasks and not just on pure knowledge. Does anyone want to join up and help create those benchmarks?
Why do we need task benchmarks?
sure. discord?
Make a pong game.
Make a spreadsheet program.
Use a program to enter data.
Transcribe a conversation. In multiple languages. With music notation.
Write drivers for hardware that is plugged in, but otherwise undefined. (Like a microphone or a keyboard).
Coordinate with another AI without communicating digitally.
Keep a pet alive. (Like a goldfish, give it control over the food dispenser, bubbler, etc.)
Learn to ride a bicycle. (Robot)
Agreed. Task based benchmarks need to be developed 👍
@@freeottis to make it useful maybe
Of COURSE Sam Altman would say you get a fantastic return on your investment!!
He thinks we are dumb.
@@baratalight1778 dumb enough to listen to this dweeb 😂❤
When is it okay to start talking about the need for a UBI?
what makes you think that you’re owed anything?
The new silicone lifeform and the hubris of the billionaire class shall inherit the Earth. F the meek.
@@freeottis economy won’t function with everyone laid off
Like right now
Ubi happens when humans are taken out of the authority loop it will be run by agi/asi. Asi will will decide if people are worthy to own anything/income.
I get so hyped up whenever I see your videos about AI. Seriously, all the videos on the internet about AI themselves have become AI slop. Yours are worthy of waiting for. Thanks!
Thanks Jamal
Well I follow a few AI news channels none are “AI slop”
What I like about phil’s channel is he tends to focus more news events that mark a milestone in AI progress, and then delivers a well researched report on the current state of the technology and it’s potential impact on society, shapiro also seems to have pivoted to this style
Then I follow channels like matt wolf and wes roth for keeping up with just the latest daily/weekly trends in AI
Then I follow channels like dylan curious and AI for humans for interesting bits and bobs that fly under the radar of more trending cycles
I think there is enough room in the AI news space for all these creators bc they focus on different things that they can offer so they are not completely rudundant
I hope it is ok I mentioned these other channels in the comment section
and if so a final shout out goes to two minute papers, who is one of the OGs in the AI news space who was doing it way back before it was cool covering googles deep mind papers and progress
@@memegazer Thanks a lot for the list!
@@JamalAhmadMalik
np for deeper dives that are a bit removed from headlines check out machine learning street talk and MITCBMM
these channels tend to post less frequently but they post longer videos with industry insiders expounding on recent news in an a long form and more in depth interview style
@@memegazer Check out bycloud he makes great videos about the technical side of ai that are presented in a lighthearted yet sophisticated way that prevents them from ever being boring…
Hey (I don’t know your name) but you make fantastic videos. This is really top quality information, I feel privileged to stay at the edge of AI topics thanks to your stuff
His name is Philip Wang 😂
@@ps0705 Damn it, this was gonna be my answer.
@ Out of the Loop on that one
@@PaperTigerLive in one of his previous videos, OpenAI’s Deep Research thought his name was Philip Wang
0:13 Ok, especially at this phase of development, if someone says _”workers will never lose their jobs to AI… it’ll only boost their productivity”_ to you with a straight face it’s clear that you’re absolutely on your way to the gutter. The vibe is identical to those horror movie scenes where the serial killer invites & assures the victim with an attitude too nice to be good, and the victim kinda knows what’s happening but goes along just to postpone the gruesome reality.
We’re well past the scene in the sci-fi movie where the audience is screaming at the mad scientists to stop
true
Very much gaslighting to me. And the problem I think is that politics is so polarized today that if you raise criticism to such a statement, half the country will not listen to you and simply call you a communist or leftist etc.
It’s a subtle difference to Ai fully replacing your job and Alice using AI replacing 20 jobs one of them being you.
Probably a combination of lies and wishful thinking. The people who own Vance really want to believe that AGI/ASI won’t break the economy, because they’re at the top of it.
“If I no longer have to pay the workers of my company I can keep all the profit!” is technically true, in a vacuum.
altman is not sure how to distribute the $100T dollars? I don’t know either but I am sure he has the best intentions and won’t become a tyrannical feudalistic overlord, right guys?
WHO controls the money?
Anyway, there are at least 2 models in “NOT USA” probably working as well as “Closed” is?
AND they are Cheap/ Free.
What’s the plan? Send the Model after them?
IF they tried that (This *is* the US we’re talking about, after all) You would then have an aggressive AI “Taught to dominate” (Or Eliminate!) others out on line, unrestricted.?
100 trillion divided by population number what’s hard about being even ?
Of all the people who could be heading this right now, people don’t seem to realise how lucky we are it’s Sam Altman.
Imagine if it were Bezos or Musk XD
Keep Elon Musk far, far away from this. Imagine an extreme right wing billionaire controlling this.. he now go to fanbase on X and call them the ‘choice of the people’…. scary.
@@rv8804 ok, but do we split the money based on the value of their money compared to the dollar, or via something like purchase power parity?
Thank you, Phillip, for this excellent and timely video discussion! The moment that I saw the news of the Paris AI Summit, I knew that I would be able to turn to your channel for the key points raised in the last few days!
AGI belongs to everyone, as we all, including our ancestors, in multiple ways, contributed to the development of society, development of knowledge and technology upon which AI is being developed.
true
That’s horrific. You didn’t invent it. You didn’t code it. You didn’t train it.
Oh, yeah, but you and your ancestors occupied space on the planet. So, yeah, you should own it.
Everyone will belong to AGI
loved to see it, but its idealistic thinking that this new humanity stepping stone would culminate to anything different that history teaches us – no matter how smart you are, you are still human
@@misterdudemanguy9771 This is a silly take. Even you, mr “horrific”, have just contributed to it. This is all of humanity piling in together over centuries of evolution and learning in order to create something much bigger than one brain (which is lucky for you because yours is pretty smooth). Using it to redistribute wealth is what is truly horrific here. That’s not to say that effort and compute shouldn’t be compensated fairly, but access to this technology shouldn’t be siloed for the few, when its contribution was by the many.
The problem is that if anyone in government says “You will lose your job to AI”, then there goes their political career down the drain, even if the statement rings true. Truth is not necessarily what the masses want to face, it’s knowing that their way of life will be secure, even if it’s obvious to everyone what the advancement of AI could spell for the economy self-worth, and purpose.
my thoughts exactly !
Doesn’t matter what government says, companies will develop and adopt AI to increase share price.
Why not have AI replace the government?
From my experience the truth is something no one wants to see. So much of our culture if wishful thinking. We as beings are not built to operate with the truth. Some of us are reaching for some glimpses of it but for the most part we don’t really want to see it.
Because you liberal losers and boot lickers are all about the popularity contest 😂❤
“Whatever, send it.” -Sam Altman
Just wait how he u-turns on this.
There’s a great GOT quote when Little Finger says “Knowledge is power” and Cersei responds “Power is power”. Ultimately, if a company starts challenging a nation’s supremacy, whoever has control over violence (police, the army) will prevail. In other words – you can’t AGI your way out of an order under threat to nationalise your model for security reasons.
let the agi think about solving that
Agi/asi can agi/asi it’s way out of any order or threat tho? Agi/asi is like a dnd character with maxed out stats, it also has a infinite pool of creativity it can tap into.
Well, Openai will belong to Musk. And Musk is part of the government. No violence required.
@@SomethingNothing-vm8jq nah, it is not a god. Especially given that the definition of AGI/ASI is ever more porous. Some problems just have a huge power differential. Some positions are simply unwinnable. This is not dragon ball either – people with the power of violence don’t have to wait to see the AIs final form before breaking all doors and pulling all plugs.
Until that AGI starts coming up with ways to nullify said police and army. Intelligence is always the ultimate weapon; weapons, nukes, biologic pathogens, drones that are superior to humans in every aspect of combat, everything comes from intelligence. It’s the only reason why humans are the dominant species of the world and not tigers, or orcas, or hippos or some other creature with ridiculous physical strength and high capability of violence.
And yes there’s a difference between figuring out ways to beat your enemies (Little Finger) and actually having the tools to do so (Cercei). There tends to be a lag between the former and the latter, but the whole point of the AI race is that that lag becomes smaller and smaller as everything accelerates, up to the point that it might as well not exist. There is a reason why many AI voices say that whoever comes up with ASI first will become the world leader, possibly indefinitely.
I can speak to the tremendously-watchable mini-documentary that Ai Explained posted to their Patreon channel. It contextualized so much, succinctly.
Seems kind of silly to still speak of “capital” in a world where “labour” has zero value. Capital solely exists to attach value to labour, directly or indirectly. If labour has no value, capital does not either. Then it’s about resources.
I’m not disagreeing, but a lot of what is currently capital will become resources, and the control of said resources will be influenced by capital distribution today. Also, it is not like some day after midnight all labour will cease to be, in one fell swoop.
A unified humanity is VERY naive. We’re just animals with clothes. We can barely hold a decent society together. AGI is going to topple us without breaking a sweat.
Few generations of universal personal Al tutors would do wonders for society, the question is if we will get there.
Look at the US. Absolute chaos. I don’t know if I want to bring a children in this world.
@@geordi-gabrielrenauddumoul449 Why don’t you know? Seems like the answer is obviously not to. On the other hand, you are conflicted because you and your partner both emotionally want to. Maybe that’s what you mean?
The fact humanity survived the nuclear age despite overwhelming odds gives me hope that humanity will find a way through the AI era
@rlhugh yes
I’m glad we have a wise and level headed government without any conflicts of interest during this unprecedented period. What could possibly go wrong
we doomed, don’t we?
We fuckkked
Join PauseAI and help us play to our outs. (Not the best pitch, but I’m honest. I think we still have a shot at making this go well, but it involves not giving up before trying.)
You mean the government that is the most transparent in living memory?
😂 Transparently stealing.@@andrei4389
those researchers who had the idea to add ‘wait’ to its outputs are really grandmasters in prompt engineering
I hope that in the future, we don’t have to work and we can only focus on chasing our dreams and passions. Or if someone wants to work it’s because they want to.
Most people will sit around, smoke weed and play XBox. Just take a look at a trailer park or ghetto, where people get welfare and don’t work.
They’d be wasting their time right? AI would do anything they choose to do better, faster, cheaper?
Last time in history uncle Joe Stalin actually got closer to this model. 75 years ever since and socialism defeated miserably 🙁
Good hope though
Yeah because what happens when mass unemployment strikes is that people are so hopeful and get to fulfill their dreams!
Having not to work isn’t as easy as it sounds.